The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” report 2015. World coffee production for 2015/16 is forecast up 600,000 bags over the previous year to 150.1 million as record output in Indonesia and Honduras--as well as recovery in Vietnam--more than offsets a shortfall in Brazil. Global exports and consumption are forecast at record quantities, lowering ending stocks to 36.7 million bags.
Brazil’s Robusta harvest is forecast to decline 3.7 million bags to 13.3 million. Yields are lower following below-average rainfall and aboveaverage temperatures in Espirito Santo, where the vast majority is grown. Arabica output is forecast to fall 1.2 million bags to 36.1 million on lower yields following January’s dry growing conditions in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, two regions that account for about 80 percent of output. The combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast down 4.9 million bags to 49.4 million. As a result of reduced supplies, bean exports are expected to drop 3.1 million bags to 30.0 million and ending stocks are forecast to decline 4.2 million bags to 5.2 million.
The United States is the second-largest importer and is forecast to increase 500,000 bags to 24.0 million due to higher consumption. Last year, top suppliers included Brazil (30 percent), Colombia (21 percent), and Vietnam (13 percent). Ending stocks are forecast nearly unchanged at 6.1 million bags.
