World coffee production for 2015/16 is forecast to rebound 6.4 million bags from the previous year to 152.7 million due primarily to record output in Indonesia and Honduras as well as modest recovery in Brazil according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report “Coffee: World Markets and Trade”. Global exports and consumption are forecast at record quantities, drawing ending inventories to their lowest level in 4 years.
Brazil’s Arabica production is forecast to improve 3.8 million bags to 38.0 million on favorable weather during most of the growing period, though January 2015 was drier than average in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, two regions that account for about 80 percent of output. This is in contrast to last year’s prolonged drought and high temperatures that caused production to drop sharply during what would have normally been an on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. The Robusta harvest is forecast to decline 2.6 million bags to 14.4 million due to lower yields following below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in Espirito Santo, where the vast majority is grown. The combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to increase 1.2 million bags to 52.4 million. However, with lower total supplies due to last year’s stocks drawdown, bean exports are expected to drop 2.5 million bags to 30.0 million and ending stocks are forecast to decline 1.5 million bags to 4.3 million.
