ICO: 2018/19 Marks Second Consecutive Year Of Surplus
Source International Coffee Organization
World coffee production in coffee year 2018/19 is estimated to be 3.7% higher than in the previous year at 168.87 million bags, as output of Arabica increased by 1.8% to 102.68 million bags and Robusta grew 6.7% to 66.04 million bags. The larger supply in coffee year 2018/19 is reflected in increased shipments in the first eleven months of the coffee year, during which global exports increased by 9.2% to 120.28 million bags, surpassing the total volume shipped in 2017/18. In coffee year 2018/19, world consumption is estimated to be 2.1% higher at 164.82 million bags, but coffee production exceeded this by 4.05 million bags. This surplus is a major factor in the low prices this season. The ICO composite indicator fell to 97.74 US cents/lb in September 2019, and it averaged 100.47 US cents/lb in coffee year 2018/19. Prices for the Arabica group indicators rose in September 2019, while the Robusta indicator fell to its lowest monthly average since April 2010, decreasing to 70.64 US cents/lb in September 2019.
The ICO composite indicator averaged 97.74 US cents/lb in September 2019, increasing 1.7% from August 2019. It reached its lowest point of 94.01 US cents/lb in the month on 5 September. It peaked at 100.29 US cents/lb on 16 September, which is the only day that the indicator exceeded 100 US cents/lb in September 2019.
